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  • Tech Concerns Keeping Bonds in The Game There was some oil price volatility today that looked like it might line up with some of the intraday volatility in the bond market. This may have actually been relevant between 10:10 and 10:30am as various rumors circulated regarding a draft deal. But the general trading range of […]
  • Mortgage rates dropped 0.03% today on average leaving the top-tier 30yr fixed rate index at 7.40% vs 7.43% yesterday–the third lowest level in more than 3 weeks. As has been and continues to be the case, the lower rates seen since last Wednesday are primarily being driven by concerns about deleveraging and potential contagion in […]
  • “I ordered a book online titled, ‘How to Scam People Online.’ It’s been six months and I still haven’t received it.” Being scammed, and fraud in general, isn’t a laughing matter. Companies like SoFi publish information on how to recover afterward. People over 60, as always, are more susceptible. The FBI has a website on […]
  • The bond market continues to decide who it wants to be in Q4, 2026–the harbinger of inflation concerns, debt issuance and economic growth or a safe haven for cash being freed up by AI capex deleveraging. We're starting slightly stronger today with the AI deleveraging trade apparently setting the tone. Movement is too modest to […]
  • What's Up With Monday's Weakness? Bonds were moderately weaker on Monday and not in a way that was obviously connected to any of the potential scapegoats. We know that there was selling in the EU bond market overnight and while U.S. yields correlated with much of that move, that correlation broke down precisely when an […]
  • Mortgage rates were moderately higher to start the new week, adding to the modest losses seen on Friday. The silver lining is that any of the past 3 business days saw the lowest rates since September 23rd. There were no clear reasons for today's rate movement in terms of economic reports or news headlines. The […]
  • “There’s a cohort of American males who believe that, with 1-2 years of dedicated practice, they could win the Masters golf tournament. As a marketer, it is important to understand that you can sell these people anything.” Advertising is not the same as marketing (it’s a component of it) and artificial intelligence is a part […]
  • Last week's most notable development was a flight to safety in the bond market precipitated by concerns about a shift in tech sector sentiment. The shift in question was mainly driven by Coreweave which saw shares plummet and corporate debt spreads explode. That cause some concern about spillover to the rest of the tech sector. […]
  • Could Have Been Better. Could Have Been Worse If the bond market was a Mario Bro, it found a gold star at some point on Wednesday. As Thursday afternoon, the gold star ran out of juice and we're back to regular old Mario. In other words, astonishing resilience/bullishness has been replaced by a sideways-to-slightly-weaker grind. […]
  • If you're busy, we can make this quick. Existing home sales dropped sharply from over 6m units per year starting in 2022 and had bottomed out around 4m units per year by the end of 2023. They've done essentially nothing exciting since then and the latest update is no exception. The end.  If you prefer […]

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